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FORECAST ERROR REDUCED BY 15% THROUGH AUTOMATED MODEL SELECTION COMBINED WITH MLOPS PIPELINE

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CLIENT

 

An American life sciences enterprise was facing below mentioned challenges -

  • Demand forecasting required for 27 thousand SKUs with a forward outlook of 36 months
  • Forecasting to be repeated monthly, with the latest monthly data incorporated into the univariate time series
  • Limited features and data descriptions available
  • Need for accurate forecasting for proper planning

 

SOLUTION

 

 

Through digital transformation we enabled demand forecasting for SKUs using smart analytics and machine learning. We helped the client in -

  • Improving forecasting accuracy through causal forecasting methods
  • Classifying the best performing models for each of the SKU groups by using “model win”
  • Identifying seasonality by using an unsupervised learning approach
  • Identifying SKU groups by leveraging statistical parameters

 

BENEFITS

 

 

15% forecast error reduction through automated model selection led forecast along with MLOps on AWS Cloud

 

45% reduction in overall manual effort by model selection and demand correction

 

2.5% decrease in overall cost through improved production planning and reduced manual intervention

 

1.5% increase in sales revenue through optimal inventory volume and enhanced customer service level